Recession Alert: Will home sales and prices go down?

If people are worried about their jobs, and being able to pay their bills. They’re less likely to want to buy a home. Ditto if they’re nearing retirement and the stock market volatility wiped out a big chunk of their 401(k) accounts.

But that caution is likely to be at least partly offset by some of the lowest mortgage interest rates in nearly 50 years. They were just 3.36% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage as of Thursday, according to Freddie Mac.

“I don’t know which force will be greater: the negative impact of job cuts, if that was to occur, or the positive influence of low mortgage rates,” says National Association of Realtors® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

Most housing economists don’t expect housing prices to fall, since we’re still seeing a housing shortage. There aren’t enough existing homes or new construction to satisfy the high demand from buyers. Many of whom have been looking for a home for a while and perhaps have lost bidding wars. After all, the life changes that lead people to buy a home are still ongoing: expanding a family or having kids leave the nest, or relocating for a new job.

Also, sellers will likely be reluctant to accept less than they would have just a few weeks or months ago. Those not in a hurry to sell may simply pull their abodes off the market and wait for prices to rebound.

As for current homeowners who might find themselves in financial straits if they lose their job, lenders may offer forbearance and payment deferral programs to help them stave off a short sale or foreclosure, says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

“They’ll be very understanding,” Zandi says of lenders, particularly of government-sponsored loans through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and Federal Housing Administration loans. “Especially in an election year, I don’t think there’s [much of a] chance they’ll take a hard line.”

What real estate markets could be hurt the most by a downturn?

The markets that are most likely to be affected by a downturn, at least initially, are those that rely heavily on travel, tourism, and hospitality. Manufacturing sectors that rely on a global supply chain that’s been disrupted by the virus could also take a hit.

With conferences and conventions being canceled at a rapid clip, places such as Las Vegas could feel the economic toll. Similarly, tourist hot spots like Orlando, FL, home to Disney World, Universal Orlando, and SeaWorld theme parks, which have all announced closures, could also feel the pain.

Their saving grace could be the retirees moving in to those communities, says NAR’s Yun. That demand could keep prices stable—and therefore sellers happy.

“Those [type of] markets are worth watching,” says Yun.

Booming markets that grew very quickly with big price gains could also experience a bit of a slowdown. Metro areas like Denver, Salt Lake City, and Boise, ID, could potentially be affected, says Moody’s Zandi. These markets, which have growing tech scenes, have become popular with retirees and priced-out folks from California in recent years.

“You might see some price declines in the Western markets that got very juiced up, very speculative.” he says.

Zandi thinks those real estate markets could rebound fast. Maybe within a quarter or two, or as soon as the economy improves.

The luxury market could have a harder time. A multimillion-dollar home isn’t exactly a necessity, and they typically take longer to sell in normal times. And those who have enough money to buy high-end real estate often have quite a bit of money in the stock market. Which has been on a wild ride lately, making them less likely to want to commit to another pricey property. Even luxury rentals, which is where builders have been focusing in recent years, may end up sitting empty.

“Prices are going to come down,” says Zandi. “In a recession, people will look for the best bargain. They’re not going to look for the luxury, high-end home. They’re going to look for the ‘give me what I need at a good price.'”